Trying desperately to write this in the midst of a tea party and much nostalgic review of the past half-century, so I'll try and stick to the footy. Starting today, and running until the weekend, it's overdose time. Four matches per day, in two pairs. Each pair of matches must be played simultaneously in order to ostensibly preclude any sort of match-fixing collusion-type-thing.
The fact that we're down to the last two matches of each of the eight groups means that there are some certainties even before the first ball is kicked, and it might be interesting to examine how those certainties change the probabilities of the outcomes yet to be determined.
For starters, France play South Africa, and Mexico play Uruguay. A draw between Mexico and Uruguay sends both teams through, and anything that France or South Africa might do would be completely moot. IF - the match is not a draw, the winning side between MEX and URU goes through. The loser can be caught on points by the winning team between FRA and RSA, but then goal differential comes in, and both France and South Africa need a grotesque number of goals to overcome the potential difference. In other words, if Uruguay and Mexico do not draw (by a large margin), and South Africa or France win (by a large margin), then second-place is still up for grabs.
Having giving South Africa and France a thin, mathematical glimmer of hope, the French cause could generally be considered to be submarined by in-fighting. Unless there's some sort of elaborate world-wide deception, the French camp has been observed to implode as at least one member of staff has resigned, and the FFF has kicked Nicolas Anelka off the team and sent him back to France. Thierry Henry has already slagged off Raymond Domenech, and the team has gone on strike and refused to train.
Basically, if the press are to be believed, France will meltdown in the most spectacular way, and Bafana Bafana are absolutely desperate to slurp up any advantage. In South Africa, this sounds too damned good to be true. Prior to the tournament, I was reading about team members that refused to pass to Sidney Govou or Yohan Gourcuff in qualifying because they disapproved of the team selection process. The recent events are a logical extension of those schisms, but will that translate into a performance on the pitch?
Next up is Group B, where Argentina plays Greece and Nigeria takes on South Korea. Argentina are definitely through, and Nigeria is definitely out. So... South Korea is playing a dead duck that has only pride at stake, and Greece are playing one of the in-form teams in the tournament. Maradona has said that he will do Greece no favours, and will mercilessly dismantle them if he can. Nigeria has self-destructed up and down the street, and their disciplinary record has handicapped them significantly, even if they want to play spoilers. The odds look good for the Koreans to pip the Greeks and take second place.
Tomorrow, groups C and D will conclude their group phase. Slovenia leads the group, but really, both the Americans and the English should go through. They're both on two points, but the quiet revolution in the England camp should shake up Capello's squad enough to thrash the Slovenians, and the blatant cheating to rob the Americans in their game against the Slovenians should give them the officiating nod against the Algerians.
Must run. The remaining Groups will be evaluated at next opportunity.
Cheers,
—mARKUS
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